Published Nov 4, 2020
Analysis of NC State's standing in the preseason KenPom rankings
Justin H. Williams  •  TheWolfpackCentral
Staff Writer
Twitter
@JustinHWill

On a night where many Americans were breaking down voting data from Election Day, another anticipated form of analytics was released: the 2020-21 preseason KenPom rankings.

After college basketball fans were deprived of March Madness in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020-21 season is set to begin three weeks from today on Nov. 25.

Here is an analysis of where NC State fared in the first KenPom rankings of the year:

Advertisement

National Rankings 

NC State's 2020-21 preseason KenPom national rankings
CategoryNational Ranking

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (Overall)

55

Offense

43

Defense

64

Tempo

70

National Ranking Observations

• NC State begins 2020-21 ranked five spots lower than it finished in 2019-20 (No. 50) according to KenPom. Its current overall adjusted efficiency measure (+14.94), however, is higher than it was at the end of last season (+13.39).

• Had the Wolfpack finished 2019-20 with its current overall efficiency measure of +14.94, it would have been ranked No. 41 overall – two spots higher than Virginia, who was a projected No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to BracketMatrix. It is important to note that NC State was projected to be a No. 11 seed in the Big Dance by BracketMatrix before the rest of the season was canceled on the Thursday of the ACC Tournament.

• KenPom projects the Wolfpack's offense to take a slight dip. It has NC State with a 106.2 adjusted offensive efficiency, just under five points lower and ranked one spot below where the Pack finished last season (110.7, No. 42). The adjusted offensive efficiency number represents how many points a team scores per 100 possesions.

• KenPom also suggests that NC State's defense will improve and it will play at a quicker pace. The preseason rankings have the Wolfpack ranked No. 64 with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 91.3. That puts the Pack with a defensive rating six points lower (97.3 in 2019-20) and ranks it 15 spots higher (No. 79 in 2019-20).

• NC State has a preseason adjusted tempo rating (possesions per 40 minutes) of 73.4, good for No. 70 nationally. That is 3.9 points higher than last season (69.5) and ranks 33 spots higher (No. 103).

• The Wolfpack is ranked higher than three of its known potential non-conference opponents and ranked below two others:

Michigan (in Ann Arbor on Dec. 9): No. 17

UConn (reported neutral site on Dec. 5): No. 43

Eastern Kentucky (MTE Nov. 25/Nov. 27): No. 217

Charleston Southern (MTE Nov. 25/Nov. 27): No. 264

North Florida (MTE Nov. 25/Nov. 27): No. 282

• KenPom only has one officially scheduled game for NC State in its system. It predicts a 76-70 road loss to Michigan and gives the Wolfpack a 26 percent chance of victory in Ann Arbor.

Conference Rankings 

NC State's 2020-21 preseason KenPom ACC rankings
CategoryACC rank (out of 15)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (Overall)

10

Offense

8

Defense

10

Tempo

4

• Duke is the only team ranked in the Top 10 at No. 3 overall. After the Blue Devils, the ACC has four teams ranked No. 10-25 and five teams ranked No. 26-60. Here is how the ACC rankings shake out 1-10:

No. 3 Duke

No. 14 Louisville

No. 16 Virginia

No. 23 North Carolina

No. 29 Syracuse

No. 30 Virginia Tech

No. 40 Clemson

No. 41 Miami

No. 55 NC State

• Georgia Tech (No. 73) and Pittsburgh (No. 83) were the only other squads inside the Top 100. Notre Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest are all outside of the Top 100.

The Wolfpacker – ACC Basketball Preview: Ranking the league's teams 1-15

• In terms of offensive efficiency, the Wolfpack jumped Virginia and Clemson for the No. 8 spot in the conference.

• NC State is considered the fourth-most up-tempo team in the ACC according to the preseason KenPom rankings with 73.4 estimated possessions per 40 minutes. Only Duke (74.3), North Carolina (74.1) and Florida State (73.6) are ranked higher in the league.

——

• Talk about it inside The State of Basketball

Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes

• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolfpacker

• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolfpacker

• Like us on Facebook