If NC State is sitting squarely on the bubble, a notion disputed by almost all of the bracketologists at this point, Thursday was mostly a good day for the Pack.
To recap:
• Both of the remaining bubble teams in the ACC (Louisville and Notre Dame) lost games that would have significantly boosted their portfolios and thus left them likely behind NC State in the pecking order.
• All three of the primary remaining Big 12 bubble teams (Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas) went down in the quarterfinals. Kansas State, who is in somewhat similar position as NC State, did advance with a win over TCU, but leaving the other three Big 12 squads squarely on the bubble provides NCSU with some cushion.
• Marquette was beaten by Villanova in the Big East. The Golden Eagles was the Big East’s most prominent bubble team and like Notre Dame and Louisville from the ACC lost a chance to significantly boost itself. Providence, a fellow bubble team, did help itself with an overtime win over Creighton.
• Utah was upset by Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament, probably dropping the Utes off the bubble.
• Similarly, Boise State was upset by Utah State in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, perhaps dealing a fatal blow to its chances of making the field.
• One less-than-ideal tournament thus far is in the SEC where Alabama stunned Texas A&M at the buzzer to advance. It would help NC State if the Rolling Tide’s run is stopped sooner rather than later. It will play top-seeded Auburn Friday.
• Another non-preferred development was Middle Tennessee being upset in its first game of the Conference USA Tournament. Ideally it would have won the event and made it a one-bid league. Now Middle Tennessee joins the list of bubble teams, and CUSA could conceivably get two teams into the field. That said, MTSU’s overall portfolio that includes just two quad one wins is probably not as strong as NC State’s.
So what should NC State fans hope for going into the weekend:
• Auburn beats Alabama. Elsewhere in the SEC Tournament, no Cinderella runs to the title from Georgia or Mississippi State.
• Oregon’s run in the Pac-12 Tournament ends. The other three teams in the tournament (Arizona, UCLA and USC) are decent bets to make the field, but Oregon probably needs to win it. Best case scenario for the Pack is Arizona takes the title as both UCLA and USC are hovering around the bubble.
• Likewise, Providence's run in the Big East is stopped, preferably in Friday's semifinals against Xavier.
• In the Atlantic 10, Rhode Island wins the tournament, but if not them St. Bonaventure. Anyone but those two taking the event is likely stealing a bid from someone. The strong preference would be Rhode Island taking it since St. Bonaventure themselves are probably a bubble team.
• In the American Athletic Conference, the NCAA Tournament locks are Cincinnati, Houston and Wichita State. All three are in quarterfinals action Friday. Ideally, one would win the tournament.
• Nevada wins the Mountain West Conference Tournament. If so, the MWC is perhaps a one-bid league after Boise State’s defeat. Nevada will play San Diego State in the semifinals Friday.
As for some of the noted bracketologists out there, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has NC State as a nine seed playing eighth-seeded Creighton in Wichita, Kan. The winner would likely get top-seeded Kansas after that.
Eerily similar is CBS’s Jerry Palm, except he has NC State as an eight seed and Creighton as the nine seed.
On Yahoo! Sports’ Bracket Brad’s Big Board, NC State is a seven-seed and No. 26 overall in the field.
According to Bracketmatrix.com, NC State was listed on 98 of 101 brackets as of 8:30 p.m. Thursday night. The average seeding was 9.49, or the last of the four nine seeds.
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