The Wolfpacker game predictions: NC State at North Carolina
Can NC State make it three in a row at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill? The Pack is favored by about a touchdown according to oddsmakers.
The Wolfpacker staff offers its predictions for the game.
Matt Carter
A telling stat about how Saturday will go is rushing yards. In the last 26 games the two teams have met, the team that rushed for more yards won 23 of them. Due to the fact that the forecasts this week have been consistent in calling for rain right when this game is being played, and the bet here is that will be 24 of the last 27 after Saturday.
Which is why I think Vegas may be right to play this game more cautious than perhaps the outsiders view it. North Carolina has its flaws (what 2-8 team doesn't), but it is a pretty decent running team this year, averaging 199.0 yards per game on the ground, good for 44th best in the country.
The Heels' rushing attack has also been far more consistent than NC State's, which is averaging 128.4 yards per game and ranks a paltry 113th out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams.
However, I think the rain could play in State's favor. UNC quarterback Nathan Elliott does not fit the profile of the type of quarterback that has given NC State problems this year. He's not necessarily mobile and not noted for arm strength. NC State is already good against the run, ranking 16th nationally. It might be able to sell out even more versus the rush Saturday.
UNC on the other hand is just 116th in rush defense. Although the Pack has struggled at times running the football even against bad defenses (see Wake Forest), NC State has had its moments as well.
The guess here is the Pack does just enough on the ground to pull out a 33-27 win.
Jacey Zembal
The rushing statistic has been very telling in the rivalry, but Saturday will be about the quarterbacks. NC State has a good college quarterback in sixth-year senior Ryan Finley and UNC has struggled replacing former star Mitchell Trubisky the last two years.
Last year was understandable due to Trubisky unexpectedly turning pro a year early, but the Tar Heels should have always had someone in the pipeline for the 2018 season. Instead, junior Nathan Elliott has earned the bulk of the playing time. Combine that with losing several quality receivers at the same time as Trubisky's departure and the Tar Heels don't have the firepower in the passing game.
Conversely, there was a time where NC State didn't have the pieces in its passing game a few years ago, and that was with an NFL quarterback Jacoby Brissett throwing the football. Landing former South Carolina wide receiver commit Kelvin Harmon and finding gold in former quarterback Jakobi Meyers has altered everything about the Wolfpack offense.
Finley has passed for 3,180 yards and 21 touchdowns thanks to one-two punch of Harmon and Meyers, and the welcomed development of sophomore Emeka Emezie. Harmon has 1,065 yards and six touchdowns with two games remaining, and until Harmon did it last year, the Wolfpack didn't have a 1,000-yard receiver since Jerricho Cotchery in 2003.
The running game is important, but the passing attack will help NC State roll over North Carolina 38-17 on Saturday.
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