North Carolina was inconsistent with Roy Williams at coach in 2020-21, and that hasn’t changed under first-year coach Hubert Davis this season.
UNC went 18-11 overall and 10-6 in the ACC, before getting whipped 85-62 vs. Wisconsin in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Tar Heels are off to a 14-6 overall mark and 6-3 in the league, but also have some glaring losses. UNC lost by 22 at Wake Forest and by 28 at Miami in back-to-back ACC games this month.
North Carolina was also drilled 98-69 vs. Kentucky on Dec. 18, and also lost against Purdue and Tennessee. UNC’s top wins are against 10-7 Michigan and 12-8 Virginia.
NC State plays at North Carolina at 2 p.m. Saturday on the ACC Network.
Overview
North Carolina returned four starters from last year, but one is already seemingly buried on the depth chart.
UNC welcomed back junior center Armando Bacot, sophomore guards Caleb Love and Kerwin Walton and senior small forward Rechon “Leaky” Black. Fellow sophomore guard R.J. Davis, who did start 10 times last year, has supplanted Walton in the lineup.
North Carolina did lose post players Garrison Brooks (Mississippi State) and Walker Kessler (Auburn) to transfer, however, they welcomed stretch four power forwards Brady Manek (Oklahoma) and Dawson Garcia (Marquette), who have shared the position. Garcia hasn’t played since the Wake Forest loss Jan. 22 due to an illness in his family. UNC also landed Virginia forward transfer Justin McKoy, who is from nearby Cary (N.C.) Panther Creek High.
Rankings
North Carolina is No. 43 in the NET rankings this season, and NC State is No. 114.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) has the Tar Heels currently ranked No. 34 overall, and NC State is No. 98.
KenPom.com has North Carolina at No. 37, and NCSU checks in at No. 102.
RealtimeRPI.com has NC State ranked No. 181 in the country, and North Carolina is No. 38.
Shooting
North Carolina is shooting 44.9 percent from the field, 37.0 percent on three-pointers and 76.1 percent at the free-throw line.
The Tar Heels shot just 31.7 percent on three-pointers, but the improvements from Davis and Love, plus the two power forward transfers have boosted their perimeter firepower. Love has gone from 26.6 percent last year to a team-best 41.9 percent.
Davis is shooting 40.2 percent this season and Manek has bombed away for 40 of 109 from three-point land for 36.7 percent.
Rebounding
UNC has out-rebounded opponents 41.0-32.0 this season thanks to the strength inside of Bacot. The 6-10, 240-pounder leads the team with 12.1 rebounds per game and he’s been tough on the offensive boards with a team-best 76. The Tar Heels have 220 offensive rebounds.
Manek is second on the team with 5.8 rebounds a contest and fellow power forward Garcia is right behind with 5.5 per game, if he’s available.
Defense
The Tar Heels have held opposing teams to 43.3 percent from the field and 32.8 percent on three-pointers.
Bacot has improved as a rim protecter and has 29 blocks, but no other player has tallied more than 11. Love leads the squad with 23 steals and is one of five players with at least 12.
Depth
UNC doesn’t play every scholarship player as often under Coach Davis, but still has options off the bench. Previously mentioned Walton now comes off the bench after starting last year. He averaged 8.2 points per game and made 42 percent of his three-pointers a year ago. He has dipped to 3.6 points a contest and 32.6 percent from beyond the arc in 16.2 minutes.
Garcia is the X-factor due to his availability and talent. The 6-11, 235-pounder averaged 13.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, and made 26 of 73 three-pointers at Marquette last year. He’s playing 9.1 minutes less this season and his numbers have dipped to 9.0 points and 5.5 boards a game. He has fallen to 40.7 percent from the field, but improved to 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.
If Garcia can’t go, then McKoy moves up in the post rotation. He is averaging 1.4 points and 1.8 rebounds in 8.4 minutes per game. Deep reserves such as sophomore Puff Johnson and freshmen D’Marco Dunn and Dontrez Styles were all former Rivals.com top 70 recruits. Guard Anthony Harris is out for the season.
Star Watch
The 6-foot-10, 240-pound Armando Bacot is proving that patience is paying off.
Bacot has always had NBA Draft rumors swirling around, but has elected to wait until he’s ready for the league. He had a solid sophomore year, but has made a considerable jump this season in light of Brooks and Kessler transferring.
Bacot is averaging 16.3 points, an ACC-leading 12.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, and shooting 57.8 percent from the field. He averaged 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds a contest last year, and shot 62.8 percent from the field.
Bacot exploded for 29 points and 22 rebounds in the 74-58 win over Virginia on Jan. 8, and then followed up with 29 points and 12 boards in the victory over Georgia Tech the next game Jan. 15. Bacot has 15 double-doubles for points and rebounds this season. He has grabbed 10-plus rebounds in every game but four.
The five-star Bacot was ranked No. 27 overall in the nation in the class of 2019. He originally attended Richmond (Va.) Trinity Episcopal, but finished up at Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy. He also played with Team Loaded VA on the adidas circuit and switched to Team Takeover in the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League. NC State wing Casey Morsell was one of his teammates.
Bacot picked North Carolina over Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Georgetown, Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma State and UCLA.
Likely Starters
NC State
PG — 1 Dereon Seabron (6-7, 180, R-Soph., 19.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.5 spg)
SG — 0 Terquavion Smith (6-4, 160, Fr., 14.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.4 spg)
G — 14 Casey Morsell (6-3, 200, Jr., 7.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF — 4 Jericole Hellems (6-7, 200, Sr., 14.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.3 spg)
C — 21 Ebenezer Dowuona (6-11, 225, Soph., 4.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.1 apg, 1.9 bpg)
North Carolina
PG — 2 Caleb Love (6-4, 195, Soph., 15.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.2 spg)
SG — 4 R.J. Davis (6-0, 175, Soph., 13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.3 apg)
SF — 1 Leaky Black (6-8, 200, Sr., 3.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF — 45 Brady Manek (6-9, 230, Sr., 12.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.7 apg)
C — 5 Armando Bacot (6-10, 240, Jr., 16.3 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.5 bpg)
Numbers Of Note
12.1: Rebounds per game for junior center Armando Bacot, which is the most by a UNC player since Billy Cunningham averaged 14.3 in 1964-65. He’s on pace for the fifth-highest average in school history.
13 Current NBA players, who played for North Carolina, though Nassir Little just suffered a potential season-ending injury this week for the Portland Trail Blazers.
52.1: Opponents field-goal percentage in the six games that North Carolina has lost this season.
Game Within The Game: UNC’s Caleb Love vs. NC State’s Casey Morsell
North Carolina sophomore guard Caleb Love had a rough introduction to college basketball last year.
Rivals.com ranked him the No. 17 overall player in the class of 2020 coming out of St. Louis (Mo.) Christian Brothers High. He played for Brad Beal Elite in the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, which is the same traveling program that NC State forward Jericole Hellems came out of.
Love was expected to backup Coby White last year, but White played so well as a freshman that he turned professional after one season in Chapel Hill. Love was thrown into the lineup and he had the worst statistical season by any Power Five Conference guard.
Love averaged 10.5 points, 3.6 assists and 2.6 rebounds in 27.7 minutes per game last year. However, he shot an abysmal 31.6 percent from the field and 26.6 percent from three-point land. He had 104 assists, but 91 turnovers.
Love and UNC split the season series last year with NC State. He went a combined 9 of 29 from the field and 0 of 6 on three-pointers for 26 points and nine assists.
Love has improved and maybe part of that is sharing some play-making responsibilities with Davis. He is up to 15.0 points and 3.4 rebounds per game, and surprisingly shooting 41.9 percent from three-point land. He has 67 assists and 51 turnovers.
NC State wing Casey Morsell or the versatile Dereon Seabron might be guarding Love. If Morsell, he’s been improved the last three games, though foul trouble slowed him down against Notre Dame. Morsell is averaging 7.7 points and 3.8 rebounds a contest.
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